Journal Publications

Submitted

Fahrenbach, N.L.S., S.J. De Hertog, and R.C.J. Wills: Mechanistic insights into tropical circulation and hydroclimate responses to future forest cover change, submitted to Weather and Climate Dynamics. [Preprint]

Kroll, C.A., A. Schneidereit, R.C.J. Wills, L. Kornblueh, and U. Niemeier: Parameterization adaption needed to unlock the benefits of increased resolution for the ITCZ in ICON, submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. [Preprint]

Duffy, M.L., B. Medeiros, A. Gettleman, and R.C.J. Wills: Atmospheric mechanisms of the pattern effect, submitted to Journal of Climate.

Maher, N., A.S. Phillips, C. Deser, R.C. Jnglin Wills, F. Lehner, J. Fasullo, J.M. Caron, L. Brunner, and U. Beyerle: The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: New tools for the study of climate variability and change, submitted to Geoscientific Model Development. [Preprint]

2025

Simpson*, I.R., T.A. Shaw*, P.A. Ceppi, A.C. Clement, E. Fischer, K.M. Grise, A.G. Pendergrass, J.A. Screen, R.C.J. Wills, T. Woollings, R. Blackport, J.M. Kang, and S. Po-Chedley, 2025: Confronting Earth system model trends with observations, Science Advances, 11. [PDF] [Official Version]

Deser, C., W.M. Kim, R.C.J. Wills, I.R. Simpson, S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, K.B. Rodgers, and N. Rosenbloom, 2025: Effects of macro vs. micro initialization and ocean initial-condition memory on the evolution of ensemble spread in the CESM2 Large Ensemble, Climate Dynamics, 63 (62). [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

2024

Wills, R.C.J., A.R. Herrington, I.R. Simpson, D.S. Battisti, 2024: Resolving weather fronts increases the large-scale circulation response to Gulf Stream SST anomalies in variable-resolution CESM2 simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004123. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [Editor's Highlight]

Schneider, T., L.R. Leung, and R.C.J. Wills, 2024: Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process-knowledge, resolution, and AI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 24, 7041–7062. [PDF] [Official Version]

Bonan, D.B., J.S. Dörr, R.C.J. Wills, A.F. Thompson, and M. Årthun, 2024: Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice. The Cryosphere, 18, 2141–2159. [PDF] [Official Version]

Armour*, K.C., C. Proistosescu*, Y. Dong, L.C. Hahn, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, A.G. Pauling, R.C. Jnglin Wills, T. Andrews, M.F. Stuecker, S. Po-Chedley, I. Mitevski, P.M. Forster, and J.M. Gregory, 2024: Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (12) e231209312. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

2023

Rugenstein, M., S. Dhame, D. Olonscheck, R. Jnglin Wills, M. Watanabe, and R. Seager, 2023: Connecting the SST pattern problem and the hot model problem. Geophysical Research Letters, 50. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

Dörr, J.S., D.B. Bonan, M. Årthun, L. Svendsen, and R.C.J. Wills, 2023: Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes. The Cryosphere, 17, 4133–4153. [PDF] [Official Version]

Gray, W.R., C. deLavergne, R.C. Jnglin Wills, L. Menviel, P. Spence, M. Holzer, M. Kageyama, and E. Michel, 2023: Poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds synchronous with the deglacial rise in CO₂. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 38. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

Maher, N., R.C. Jnglin Wills, P. DiNezio, J. Klavans, S. Milinski, S.C. Sanchez, S. Stevenson, M.F. Stuecker, and X. Wu, 2023: The future of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences. Earth System Dynamics, 14, 413–431. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

2022

Wills, R.C.J., Y. Dong, C. Proistosescu, K.C. Armour, and D.S. Battisti, 2022: Systematic climate model biases in the large-scale patterns of recent sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure change. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [UW News] [Presentation in Smile Webinar, July 2022]

Shi, H., F.-F. Jin, R.C.J. Wills, M.G. Jacox, B.A. Black, D.J. Amaya, R. R. Rykaczewski, S.J. Bograd, M. García-Reyes, and W.J. Sydeman, 2022: Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century. Science Advances, 8. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [Press Release] [EurekAlert] [Nature Research Highlight] [EOS]

Oldenburg, D., R.C.J. Wills, K.C. Armour, L. Thompson, 2022: Resolution dependence of atmosphere-ocean interactions and water-mass transformation in the North Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

2021

Wills, R.C.J., K.C. Armour, D.S. Battisti, C. Proistosescu, and L.A. Parsons, 2021: Slow modes of global temperature variability and their impact on climate sensitivity estimates. Journal of Climate, 34, 8717–8738. [PDF] [Official Version] [Corrigendum] [Presentation in ECS and Cloud Feedback symposium, April 2022]

Bonan, D.B., T. Schneider, I. Eisenman, and R.C.J. Wills, 2021: Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model. Geophysical Research Letters, 48. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [PCC Research Highlight] [Polar Bears International]

Oldenburg D., R.C.J. Wills, K.C. Armour, L. Thompson, and L.C. Jackson, 2021: Mechanisms of low-frequency variability in Atlantic northward ocean heat transport and AMOC. Journal of Climate, 34, 4733–4755. [PDF] [Official Version]

Årthun, M., R.C.J. Wills, H. Johnson, L. Chafik, and H.R. Langehaug, 2021: Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate, 34, 3421–3439. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

Nilsson, J., D. Ferreira, T. Schneider, and R.C.J. Wills, 2021: Is the surface salinity difference between the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific a signature of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51, 769–787. [PDF] [Official Version]

2020

Rae, J.W.B., W.R Gray, R.C.J. Wills, I. Eisenman, B. Fitzhugh, E.F.M. Littley, P. Rafter, R. Rees-Owen, A. Ridgwell, B. Taylor, and A. Burke, 2020: Overturning circulation, nutrient limitation, and warming in the glacial North Pacific. Science Advances, 6. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [UW News]

Wills, R.C.J., D.S. Battisti, K.C. Armour, T. Schneider, and C. Deser, 2020: Pattern recognition methods to separate forced responses from internal variability in climate model ensembles and observations. Journal of Climate, 33, 8693–8719. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version] [PCC Research Highlight]

Wills, R.C.J., S. Sippel, and E. A. Barnes, 2020: Separating forced and unforced components of climate change: The utility of pattern recognition methods in large ensembles and observations. US CLIVAR Variations, 18, 1–10, Not Peer Reviewed. [PDF] [Official version] [Webinar Presentation, September 2020]

Parsons, L.A., M.K. Brennan, R.C.J. Wills, and C. Proistosescu, 2020: Magnitudes and spatial patterns of interdecadal temperature variability in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

Gray, W.R., R.C.J. Wills, J.W.B. Rae, A. Burke, R. Ivanovic, W.H.G. Roberts, D. Ferreira, and P.J. Valdes, 2020: Wind-driven evolution of the North Pacific subpolar gyre over the last deglaciation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47. [PDF] [SI] [Official Version]

2019

Wills, R.C.J., R.H. White, and X.J. Levine, 2019: Northern Hemisphere stationary waves in a changing climate, Current Climate Change Reports. [PDF] [SI] [Official version]

Wills, R.C.J., D.S. Battisti, C. Proistosescu, L. Thompson, D.L. Hartmann, and K.C. Armour, 2019: Ocean circulation signatures of North Pacific decadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 1690–1701. [PDF] [SI] [Official version] [Presentation at AMS-AOFD, June 2019]

Wills, R.C.J., K.C. Armour, D.S. Battisti, and D.L. Hartmann, 2019: Ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 32, 251–272. [PDF] [Official version]

2018

Wills, R.C.J. and T. Schneider, 2018: Mechanisms setting the strength of orographic Rossby waves across a wide range of climates in a moist idealized GCM. Journal of Climate, 31, 7679–7700. [PDF] [Official version]

Gray, W.R., J.W.B. Rae, R.C.J. Wills, A.E. Shevenell, G.L. Foster, C.H. Lear, and B. Taylor, 2018: Deglacial upwelling, productivity and CO2 outgassing in the North Pacific Ocean. Nature Geoscience, 11, 340–344. [Official version] [News and Views]

Ferreira, D., P. Cessi, H. Coxall, A. de Boer, H.A. Dijkstra, S.S. Drijfhout, T. Eldevik, N. Harnik, J.F. McManus, D.P. Marshall, J. Nilsson, F. Roquet, T. Schneider, R.C. Wills, 2018: Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry in deep water formation. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 46, 327–352. [Official version]

Wills, R.C., T. Schneider, J.M. Wallace, D.S. Battisti, and D.L. Hartmann, 2018: Disentangling global warming, multidecadal variability, and El Niño in Pacific temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 2487–2496. [PDF] [SI] [Official version] [Code] [Science Editor's Note] [PCC Research Highlight]

2017

Wills, R.C., D.S. Battisti, D.L. Hartmann, and T. Schneider, 2017: Extracting modes of variability and change from climate model ensembles. Proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on Climate Informatics: CI 2017, V. Lyubchich, N.C. Oza, A. Rhines, and E. Szekely, Eds., NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-536+PROC, 25–28. [PDF] [Official version]

Wills, R.C., X.J. Levine, and T. Schneider, 2017: Local energetic constraints on Walker circulation strength. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74, 1907–1922. [PDF] [Official version]
Corrigendum. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76, 3965. [Corrigendum]

2016

Wills, R.C., M.P. Byrne, and T. Schneider, 2016: Thermodynamic and dynamic controls on changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 4640–4649. [PDF] [SI] [Official version] [EOS Spotlight]

Wills, R.C. and T. Schneider, 2016: How stationary eddies shape changes in the hydrological cycle: Zonally asymmetric experiments in an idealized GCM. Journal of Climate, 29, 3161–3179. [PDF] [Official version]

2015

Wills, R.C. and T. Schneider, 2015: Stationary eddies and the zonal asymmetry of net precipitation and ocean freshwater forcing. Journal of Climate, 28, 5115-5133. [PDF] [Official version]
Corrigendum. Journal of Climate, 30, 8841–8842. [Corrigendum]

Ph.D. Thesis

Wills, R.C., 2016: Stationary eddies and zonal variations of the global hydrological cycle in a changing climate. Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technology. [PDF]

Other Publications

Wills, R.C., November 2014: The world is certainly warming. What about where I live? [ClimateSnack] [Personal Blog]

Schneider, T. and R.C. Wills, February 2013: An L.A. weather report in 2100 A.D. [Zocolo Public Square]

Wills, R.C., January 2013: A rockslide in action: An arch falls into the sea. [Personal Blog] [AGU Landslide Blog] [SFGate] [Huffpost] [Patch]

Wills, R.C., M. Davis, P.P. Woskov, D.T. Garnier, J. Kesner, and M.E. Mauel, 2010: Density Profile Measurements in LDX using Microwave Reflectometry. APS DPP JP9.00068. MIT PSFC Research Report. PSFC/RR-10-9. [Official Version]